The consequences of Brexit: whoever wins, nothing will be as before

The British citizens vote to stay or exit from the European Union after 44 years. But this vote will mark, whatever the outcome, the European Union’s Year Zero
Today the most important vote in decades. British voters go to the polls from 7 to 22 rooms (from 8 to 23 Italian time) for the referendum of the so-called “Brexit”, or whether to remain (Remain) in the European Union or leave (Leave). The results will be known Friday morning, although in the night many in the world will follow with apprehension exit pool and projections. The average survey indicates such a tight butt that experts say can not predict the outcome of the consultation. We can count the votes one by one in 382 centers for the counting. Global anyway repercussions: in the USA, India, Australia look to the EU with the London Eye. Britons will vote (thus including Northern Ireland), citizens of the Commonwealth of age residing in the United Kingdom, British citizens living abroad registered in electoral rolls in the past 15 years. The persons entitled to vote are 46 million. To Remain, the prime minister David Cameron – who had launched the referendum to silence wing “sovereignist” of his Conservative Party – various Scottish ministers from all parties, the Labour Jeremy Corbyn. But the workers, traditional Labour voters, are for the Leave, according to the polls, because of the post-Lehman crisis that the European Union is unable to take care of for years and Corbyn said: “The EU is not democratic, but we have to stay there and try to change it. ” In front Brexit, conservative Boris Johnson, London’s former mayor Leave a victory would put in orbit 10 Downing Street, other Tory leaders including the Minister of Justice, Michael Gove, and Ukip, the national-party populist directed by Nigel Farage.

The result is not binding and in case of victory Leave parliament will be called upon to reject the European Communities Act 1972, the date of accession of Britain incorporating European law into national law as it does for all members (one of the points more disputed by proponents of Brexit that therefore speak of a “return of sovereignty”). Technically, the Parliament could ignore the vote, but it would be weird to go against the popular will, especially in a country of ancient and solid democracy. In politics essentially impossible. Long would be the withdrawal process, we should be clear and rewrite the treaties governing the relations with the EU. It would take years. At least only two to say goodbye. Then, is to be apportioned from scratch and the Commission President, Mr Juncker, he has already said that “off means off.” London should get back in the queue and negotiate from scratch agreements without any guaranteed fast track. In fact it would be canceled, with Leave, even the agreement torn by Cameron in Brussels with whom he popped, by a very accommodating EU, absolutely privileged conditions including a veto mechanism that locks initiatives do not like in London.

Snaps so another problem: in case of victory of Remain, the EU should ratify the agreement which establishes an exception British, but hardly the other capitals, let alone their national-populist parties on the rise, would sign without flinching or ask in turn equal conditions. Other countries could demand equal treatment unless ponder the exit. Has produced a “weak point” in the building when it is implemented ‘de facto’ a process of exception / detachment from the EU, where – according to many analysts – come home to roost nodes of the incomplete fiscal union, banking and politics and the deficit democracy embodied in an unelected Commission imposing – or so it is perceived by European citizens – choices that bypass their national parliaments avocandone sovereignty. The “shock” the referendum has already produced a zero year from which the EU nothing will be as before, whatever the outcome of the referendum in Britain.

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